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We might need a different criterion for determining Market Conditions


#1

From github

The bear market for the past 3 days got me reconsidering how we determine if a market is bullish or bearish.

Assume BTC as base currency.
Generally speaking, when BTC goes up, ALTs go down, and vice versa. This isn’t always the case, but it’s true more often than not, so PTF has been great to me.
The past few days, both BTC and ALTs have been dipping. Would we classify the general trend to be bearish?
The way PTF currently use “MaxTopCoinAverageChange” and “MinBaseCoinPriceChange” to determine trend is problematic in the following example:

BTC drops 4%, ALTs drop 2% - In this case, even though everyone is losing nominal value, but arn’t ALTs positive relative to BTC?

If BTC grows 100%, and ALTs grow 50%, PTF would call this a superbull market, but wouldn’t we all be down 50% in bags?

I think we should have another check that compares ALTs trend to BTC trend. I bring this up because I believe we all trade with the assumption that both BTC and ALTs are bullish long term, so we’re trading the difference.

Thanks for the good work!


#2

Correct me if I’m wrong here, but how I see the market, and your description here, the ALTs rise 50% RELATED to BTC. So an ALT rising 50% upon a BTC rising 100%, will give 150% profit in USD.